VANCOUVER – Less than two weeks from a scheduled re-opening of Parliament with a Speech from the Throne that could potentially trigger a fall election, the latest public opinion data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds the Liberal and Conservative Parties of Canada in a tie.
The poll indicates 35 per cent of decided voters would cast a ballot for the incumbents, while the same number would support the official opposition.
Pollsters note this represents a small but perceptible four-point rise in fortunes for the CPC since May.
“The Liberals have largely survived the WE Scandal – for now – emerging over the same period of time two points lower than where they stood with the electorate in the spring,” Angus Reid officials state in a Sept. 2 press release.
The results of this poll of more than 5,000 Canadian adults suggests two strong undercurrents continue to pull and push against the other.
The first: a committed and motivated Conservative base united in its desire to consign the Trudeau government to the annals of Canadian politics.
The second: Liberal dominance in vote-rich Ontario and Canada’s big cities, places the CPC must be able to make inroads in order to win a general election.
Into this environment comes new CPC leader Erin O’Toole, tasked with convincing the centre-left he is an appealing choice – something his predecessor Andrew Scheer failed to do.
The poll indicates O’Toole has room to grow, as significant numbers of non-CPC voters say they have yet to make up their mind about him.
Key findings in the poll include:
– O’Toole – for now – is not yet defined in the minds of voters who did not choose his party in 2019. Significant numbers of past Bloc (45%), Liberal (43%) and NDP (38%) voters have not yet formed an opinion of the new CPC leader;
– the Liberals still hold the high ground in Canada’s biggest cities – with double-digit leads over all other parties in and around Montreal, the Greater Toronto Area, and Metro Vancouver; and
– pandemic response continues to be a source of strength for the Liberals. Two-thirds of Canadians (66%) say the government has handled this file well.
