Urban areas are coming under intensified growth targets

Centre Well­ington Township is scheduled to grow quickly – but few citi­zens appear aware of just how much and what type of growth they can expect.

That is reasonable, because even the experts are struggling with some of the new pro­vin­cial rules that regulate how communities will increase their populations.

Township planner Brett Salmon said the growth fore­cast approved by Welling­ton County last month will provide “a big challenge we all will face.”

Centre Wellington is doing a strategic planning exercise with all of its departments, with the idea to help determine where the council wants to head into the future. The strate­gic plans are to consider the next ten years, with a five year review to ensure the targets are being met, or, more import­antly, if they need changing. The Wellington Ad­vertiser has completed a series of inter­views with each depart­ment head so citizens can get an idea on what each depart­ment is considering for the next ten years.

Fergus and Elora are sched­uled to grow at huge rates, and much of that growth is sched­uled to take place as infilling, which means large numbers of people will now be living on spaces that once held only a handful of residents.

From the county’s growth pro­jections, which the pro­vin­cial government de­mand­ed be set, the total popu­lation in 2006 was 27,290. That will climb to 41,350 by 2031. The number of housing units will rise from 9,540 to 14,770 during time. The employment plac­es will jump from 11,320 to 17,690.

In a combined Elora and Sal­em, the 2006 population was 6,640. That is expected to climb to 10,950. The house­holds will move from 2,320 to 3,920.

In Fergus, the population will climb from 13,430 to 22,760. The number of house­holds will rise from 4,800 to 8,180.

But, Salmon pointed out, there are intermediate targets to be met along the way. By 2011, Centre Wellington is expected to have 29,880 people, 10,650 new housing units, and 12,950 jobs.

For Elora and Salem, that means a population in 2011 jump­ing from 6,640 to 7,410 and the number of housing units moving from 2,320 to 2,630.

In Fergus, the population ris­es from 13,430 to 15,260 by 2011. The number of houses jumps from 4,800 to 5,550.

But the major target, and one where Salmon foresees some difficulties comes in 2016. By then, Centre Welling­ton’s population is expected to reach 33,180, the number of housing units climbs to 11,830, and the number of jobs is to reach 14,720.

In Elora and Salem, that means a population of 8,340, and 2,970 households.

In Fergus, the population climbs to 17,520, and the hous­ing units are expected to reach 6,340.

And by then, Centre Well­ington is expected to have a total of 14,720 jobs.

Salmon noted the economic development committee is working on an industrial subdivisions that would attract expert businesses such as architects, planners, and consultants. That might help to provide some of those jobs.

As well, he noted there is also an allowance for people who work at home. That would include everyone from artists to freelance writers to people writing computer programs.

Still, he said, “It’s hard to know where all those [total] jobs are coming from.”

Complex growth

Salmon said some of the problems the township council will have to solve is by 2016, 40 per cent of all that pro­jected growth must take place within the urban boundaries are they were in June 2006.

That 40 per cent of growth will not include new subdi­visions coming on line, such as Nigus, on the Colborne Street extension, or Elora Meadows. That 40% must come from infilling and intensification.

“We’re trying to find where we can find new housing units in the built areas,” said Salmon.

He said there are obvious sites, such as empty lots, and “underutilized lots.”

He said the council is al­ready working on the issue and last month hired a firm to help it decide its urban design guide­lines, because council does want some control and good growth, rather than a hodge-podge that could result during the process.

Change for citizens

In the past, developers simp­ly obtained as many lots as they could get from council for subdivisions, and built them.

Today, council wants better development, but Salmon not­ed citizens used to large lots and single family homes are going to see many different typ­es of housing over the next 20 years.

“We’re going to have to get used to neighbourhoods of dif­ferent types of housing blended together,” he said. “Neigh­bour­hoods of single family dwell­ings are going to be gone.”

On top of that, the township will also have “a responsibility to provide rental housing for those who can’t afford to buy.”

Wellington County and Cen­­tre Wellington recently agreed to provide 55 affordable apartment units on Gordon Street that will have an average of 80% of rental units in the community. There is also some room on that property for a second building and possibly another 30 units.

Salmon said the only apart­ments he recalls be­ing built were condomi­ni­ums, and the county’s proposal is “the first in years” to provide apart­ments. The only other source in the past 10 to 20 years is people adding apartments to their houses.”

Expecting political battles

Salmon noted that one veteran planner had recently told him he had spent much of his career negotiating with de­vel­opers to reduce their hous­ing units per acre for the simple reason many people do not like high density developments.

Now, that same planner told him, he is going to spend the rest of his career looking at in­creasing the density in subdi­vision proposals.

That, in a nutshell, is what Centre Wellington is facing. There have been huge battles over subdivision densities, parti­cularly in Elora. One, known as Wellington Heights, started in the early 1980s and the battle included two Ontario Municipal Board hearings, a bankruptcy, and nearly two de­cades before it was finally approved and built.

In another instance in the 1970s, there was a huge poli­tical battle in Elora to get two three-storey apartments built on David Street. That one also played out over several years, with opponents predict­ing ruin for their village if they were approved.

“We’re going to face some of those battles again,” Salmon predicted. He also noted, “Those apartments didn’t ruin the village.”

And, he said, “Other uses can fit if there is good design built in.” He said there will still be single family and semi-de­tached homes being built.

As for apartments and con­dos, “I don’t think we’re going to see high rises. It’s not going to happen here. Realistically, no­body’s going to try to build a building here more than four or five storeys.”

He added, “If we get good apartments at good locations, we can bring up the density”

But, he said, “How we change the [development] in­dus­try to get that density is where we’re going to struggle.”

Places to Grow

Salmon said one of the principal reasons for the Places to Grow legislation is to finally stop urban sprawl. Develop­ment, particularly in the Greater Toronto Area, is causing huge problems with trans­portation and environ­mental difficulties because there is very little pub­lic transit outside of Canada’s largest urban centre.

Salmon said the Places to Grow sets targets, but some of them are going to be very tough to meet. For example, there must be 50 housing units per hec­tare. That is possible, but there must also be 50 jobs per hectare. That is why em­ploy­ment was added to the growth projections when the county did its recent growth study.

“For new subdivisions and industrial areas, we must esti­mate the jobs per hectare,” he said.

For such subdivision appli­ca­tions like Nigus, off Col­borne Street, the 250 acre site might actually be more suited to 1,400 homes rather than 1,000 to help meet the density targets.

“The density will be higher than we anticipate,” he predic­ted. While that is a huge in­crease in an already large sub­division, Salmon said, the real challenge is “getting 50 jobs per hectare.”

That is particularly so be­cause the provincial govern­ment has not yet spelled out how those jobs are to be count­ed. For example, the Nigus development includ­es land for a school. Salmon, though, is not sure if all the staff at that school will count for jobs if the employees live outside of the town­ship.

He cited Jefferson Elora has 200 jobs on 75 acres, and the de­mand for jobs per hectare is much higher than that.

Working elsewhere

While there are many prob­lems, there are also some ex­amples of places that have actu­ally made higher density development work well. One such place is British Columbia. It made major changes to the way development took place, and a recent news report noted that large cities from all over the world are visiting Van­couver to find out how it was accomplished. Salmon said one thing that province tried to do was to create “livable neigh­bour­hoods” even with high popu­­lation density. That in­clud­ed allowing high rises – so long as the developer provided parks, trails, and schools.

The Ontario government is calling it “complete commu­nities.”

Salmon said while the Nig­us plan might be large, it is planning to include a village centre, has set aside land for a school, and plans to provide parks that are connected by trails.

And Salmon said those types of developments “are the kinds of things” developers are “going to be required to provide.”

He said Nigus is “starting with a clean slate,” because it has 250 acres of vacant land. “The challenge is in the built up areas.”

Started already

In many ways, Centre Well­ington has been moving to­wards that type of development for a few years. A citizens group, Greenlands Centre Well­­ington, has been lobbying and commenting on develop­ment plans for several years, and council has been accepting those comments with an eye towards more attractive devel­opments.

As one councillors has put it, “No more cookie-cutter de­vel­opments.”

Developers, too, are coming around when it comes to such things as walkable communities and providing parks and trails. At a recent public meeting in Centre Wellington a citizen asked council to consider providing some means of keeping land for a trail in a private condominium application. The developer agreed that such a request seems reasonable, and he was willing to consider it, even if all the land around his site is already privately owned.

And developers have been finding that the value of the homes they offer for sale has been increasing with amenities such as trails and bike paths.

Salmon, though, said that cur­rent residents might fight high density planning.

“We expect battles over this. It’s going to take a while for the public to come around. They’re used to low density.”

But, he said, council has been doing such things as the parks master plan in order to accommodate the provincial de­mands and maintain green­spaces in the community.

Salmon noted that Green­lands is also working on a strategy to obtain public lands for the municipality, because, “They know we can’t afford to buy it.” The township can collect only five per cent of all land from subdivision devel­opers as a parks fee.

Salmon said that completing a strategic plan “gives us a better idea of where the priorities are.”

And, he said, council has agreed with much of the work. For example, council wants “a better quality of development” that includes “livability” and “walkability.” Instead, council could have ignored any of that type of planning. Salmon said with that type of direction, staff knows what is wanted and can carry on to provide it.

Much of the better quality development  will have to be accomplished without pushing further into the countryside, other than what is already designated for growth. Salmon said while the municipality usually considered its urban boundaries every five years, it is unlikely those will be ex­panding any time soon beyond what is already approved.

“Outside the urban area is all prime farmland,” he said. “There will not be many application for big homes [on large lots]. They’ll be in short supply here.”