Additional infrastructure will be needed and urban boundary expansion may be necessary, but officials here feel the town is positioned to handle future growth projections.
The topic arose out of discussion at the March 29 council meeting on two Official Plan amendments proposed by the County of Wellington.
One is aimed at bringing the Official Plan into conformity with the relevant source protection policies and map schedules of all five Source Protection Plans impacting the county.
The other is intended to update growth forecasts and policy for second residential units to comply with changes to the Planning Act.
“It’s a bit of a challenge because there are five different source protection plans … as a result of that, the Official Plan polices are very general,” noted source water protection/building assistant Stacey Pennington.
“The gist of the Official Plan amendment is to include the mapping” of source protection area boundaries, well head protection areas, intake protection zones and issues-contributing areas for each municipal water supply in the county, she explained.
While not expected to be overly restrictive, Pennington said some activities will be prohibited within high vulnerability zones – “at least future activities. Most zoning allows existing activities to continue with certain regulations in place.”
The draft amendment includes updated local growth forecasts from the Greater Golden Horseshoe projections set out in the Places to Grow provincial policy statement, including population and growth forecasts for 2031, 2036 and 2041.
“Basically as it affects Minto we’re expected to grow by approximately 1,300 units over 25 years,” said Pennington, noting the projections provide “incentive to accommodate this growth through infrastructure improvements in the future.”
The Official Plan amendment will require municipalities to authorize second units in single detached, semi-detached and row house dwellings, as well as ancillary structures for these dwellings.
It also extends timelines for temporary use of garden suites from 10 years to 20 years.
“The town will have the opportunity to regulate parking, floor area, building height, all that kind of stuff through our zoning bylaw,” Pennington pointed out.
“Are we able to move forward with this population growth?” asked councillor Ron Elliott.
“Do we have to expand our urban areas or do we have enough land and lots?”
Pennington replied, “To sustain this amount of growth, currently we don’t have it, at least not in Palmerston, and the sewage capacity there is approaching its limits as well, hence the (reference to) infrastructure improvements.”
She added there are draft plans of subdivision in place to create some of the lots required to meeting projections.
CAO Bill White added, “It is a 25-year scope. So I would say we don’t have enough land in our urban areas right now or enough infrastructure to accommodate all of that, but we certainly do in a five- to 10-year time frame.
“So as we move forward as a municipality we’ll need to be amending our policies to increase the urban areas to accommodate that and look at expanding our sewage capacity say, in Palmerston, that kind of thing.”
White added, “thirteen hundred units is a lot for us … you don’t get that without major investment.”
Mayor George Bridge said, “If you add up the planned subdivisions that are already approved we’re probably close to over half of that and in the next five or 10 years we have infrastructure for that.”
Bridge noted Minto is better positioned than some municipalities, where development is currently limited by lack of wastewater capacity or other infrastructure issues.
“Tomorrow morning we don’t have to get up and say ‘Boy we’ve got to start fixing things up to get there,’” he commented.
Pennington pointed out units created under the new second-unit policy would be included in the count “and those are already developed lots.”
Bridge noted in the past the municipality has struggled under provincial pressure to fill up existing lots in one urban area before creating new ones in another.
“You’re going to get the majority of the push toward Palmerston, when you’ve got openings in Clifford,” for example, he explained.
“In my mind this whole Places to Grow is a little bit misleading because people will go where they want to go … they can control it by planning somewhat,” Bridge stated.
“If the province had their way, they’d want everybody to be in high rises in downtown Toronto because it’s easier to look after everybody – but not everybody wants that lifestyle, lucky for us.”
Public meeting
Wellington County planner Gary Cousins requested municipalities submit comments on the proposed amendments by April 15.
A public meeting on the Official Plan amendments is scheduled for April 21 at 7pm at Aboyne Hall in Wellington Place, 536 Wellington Road 18, RR1, Fergus.
Growth projections
The latest growth projections put Wellington County’s population on pace to increase by close to 45,000 – from 95,805 in 2016 to 140,000 in 2041. The share of the population living in urban centres is expected to grow from 51% today to 62% in 25 years. The number of households in the county is anticipated to increase by 15,780 (from 32,960 to 48,740).
Employment in Wellington is projected to increase by nearly 21,000 jobs, from 40,070 today to 61,000 by 2041.
Nearly half the county’s growth is expected to take place in Centre Wellington, where the population is projected to rise by more than 22,000 (from 29,885 to 52,310) over the next quarter-century. If projections hold true, Centre Wellington will gain 7,900 households, growing from 10,785 today to 18,690 by 2041. Fergus alone is expected to more than double its population during the 25-year period, growing from 14,975 to 31,630. The population of the Elora-Salem community is anticipated to grow by almost 5,500 (from 7,565 to 13,060).
Projections put Wellington North’s population in 2041 at 17,685, up 5,195 from the current estimate of 12,490.
Minto is expected to have 12,810 residents by 2041, an increase of 3,745 over today’s total of 9,065.
Mapleton’s anticipated 2041 population is 14,060, 3,275 more than today’s figure of 10,785.
Guelph-Eramosa is expected to grow by 1,175, from a population of 13,400 today to 14,575 in 2041. Almost all of that growth is projected to occur in Rockwood, with only 100 more citizens expected for the rural area over the next 25 years.
The situation is reversed in Puslinch, where the total population is predicted to rise from 7,815 to 9,655, an increase of 1,840. Of that growth, 1,690 more people are expected to be living outside the urban centres of Aberfoyle and Morriston, which are still anticipated to be home to less than 1,000 people combined in 2041.
Erin is expected to grow by 3,500, from 12,365 to 15,865. The communities of Hillsburgh and Erin are expected to grow by a combined total of 2,585, from 4,415 today to 7,000 in 2041. However the study notes how much growth will be allotted to each community has yet to be determined by the Town of Erin council.
