Guelph-Eramosa Township is sending comments back to Wellington County regarding the county’s projected population, household and employment forecasts and land inventory maintenance for the township to show its apprehension about the proposed amendments to the official plan.
At the Aug. 10 council meeting, township planning associate Kelsey Lang presented a report summarizing updates the county has proposed in growth forecast updates and land inventory reports and the comments the township would like to send back to the county.
Lang said Wellington County has a prescribed population forecast from the province that was set in 2006 and covers until 2031.
“The growth plan requires that the county, the upper tier municipality, allocate these forecasts out through the lower tiers such as the township,” Lang explained.
“That’s how we have our current growth forecasts.”
In 2013 the province updated its forecasts with an amendment that extended to 2036 and 2041.
Following suit, Wellington County also updated its forecasts for growth, population, housing and employment. This information will be used for the county’s official plan review and scheduled development charge background study update in 2017.
Population
In the county’s updated forecast, the township’s projected population was lowered 930 people (from 15,290 to 14,360) in 2031. The population in Guelph-Eramosa is expected to peak in 2026 and slightly decrease after that.
Lang said one of the first questions staff asks when they see new forecast numbers is whether the township settlement areas can accommodate the revised population.
“Some places might not and find that they need a boundary expansion but by looking at our numbers we feel we can fit everything within Rockwood that we need to fit in Rockwood,” she said.
“The province allocates growth to the urban centres and in our case that’s Rockwood and as you’ll remember, the boundary was last expanded for the Rockmosa expansion and to accommodate the new school which was finalized last year.”
Households
In the county’s updated forecast for the township, the number of households was lowered by 220 (from 5,020 to 4,800) in 2031. The number of households is expected to slowly increase over time.
In Rockwood, the estimate decreased by 20 houses to 2,040 in 2031, and reaching 2,060 units in 2036.
However, based on building permits and development applications for residential units in the township, staff estimates that by 2036 there will be 2,090 households in Rockwood.
When evaluating additional households, servicing allocations must also be considered, Lang’s report to council explained. When the current sewage system was agreed upon with the City of Guelph and Rockwood, RJ Burnside and Associates, township engineering consultants, designed the system to accommodate 2,160 households, which included potential residences built on the remaining developmental land in Rockwood.
“We wanted to make sure that the amount of sewage that we could send to Guelph was the amount that we could build in Rockwood,” Lang said.
This value surpasses the county’s estimate of a 2,060 capacity to a 2,100 capacity in 2041.
Because Rockwood has been developed based on the county’s current official plan, Lang’s report suggests the updated growth forecast should reflect Burnside’s numbers and the current official plan.
“This is basically saying there’s no justification for making the boundary bigger and for what you have you’re good for another 20 years,” councillor Corey Woods said.
Employment
In the county’s updated forecast for the township, employment was decreased by 350 to 5,410 in 2031. There is a continuous increase expected for employment until 2041.
However, the township also noticed some discrepancies in the employment forecasting. The township did an inventory of the jobs that will be needed based on development applications they’ve received but haven’t built, and estimated that 203 jobs are expected to be created in the next couple of years, which is 25% of the 870 jobs expected over 20 years in the county’s forecasting.
“So that alone makes us think that maybe the forecast is a little bit off and given that and that our location next to all these urban centres such as Guelph and Kitchener and Waterloo and Cambridge and Milton we bet these forecasts are probably underestimated for employment,” Lang said.
She continued, providing a definition of jobs: “Jobs are … broken up into a number of categories in the report and it includes primary industry such as agriculture, it includes people who have no formal place of work, like landscapers were going to different places all the times, there’s institution, work-at-home, commercial. All those different categories are included in the employment numbers.”
Lang said another possibility for the underestimation could have been that the employment rate is set based on the activity rate and the activity rate is set based on the population forecast.
“If they estimate that you’ll have a low population, they’re estimating that you have low employment to go with that population,” she said.
However, given that there are major urban centres around the township and the new Highway 7 going though the township, it’s reasonable to predict that employment growth will outpace population growth because people will be commuting into the township from other areas.
Land inventory
The township had the second highest number of developable acres of vacant employment land in the updated land inventory from the county, reaching 294, compared to Wellington North’s 300.
All of Guelph-Eramosa’s inventory is outside of Rockwood and prescribed as vacant rural employment areas. These designated areas can be used for “dry” industrial and limited commercial uses. They cannot use a lot of water or produce a lot of waste to be conducive to rural servicing levels.
However, Lang said there were some discrepancies in the township records and the county land inventory numbers so staff have been discussing these differences but no conclusion has yet been drawn.
“It’s got nothing to do with accessibility, ready for market, any of that,” Mayor Chris White said. “It’s just on the map it says you’ve got this much open land so it really doesn’t look at any of the real circumstances.”
Lang clarified saying it’s not solely commercial lands.
“It only looks at areas that are designated as rural employment areas in the official plan,” she said. “So those are the rural industrial areas in our zoning.”
She also said it doesn’t look at undeveloped land, it only looks at vacant land. “So if there’s a house existing on a property that’s designated as rural employment land it wouldn’t be included in this count,” she said.
White said this is a concern because the county currently has a surplus of employment lands and it needs to choose where to direct resources.
“I think that’s where council started this conversation, was to say that the province as well as Wellington County looked across the whole landscape and say this, this, this are the targets that you’re looking for and then the county’s made the best efforts with the information they have of kind of sorting that out of where they think things are going to happen,” CAO Kim Wingrove explained.
“It’s I think … where we want to go to is just to ensure that the allocation for Guelph-Eramosa is as accurate as it can be.”
White said, “We’re going to need that because if we’re going to try to do this 10-year forecasting plan and take a look at the long-term tax capacity revenue, we really have to have fairly accurate picture as to crystal ball gazing that we’ve got ‘x’ amount of acres which might bring ‘x’ amount of revenue,” White said. “And then the jobs that would come with that.” Guelph-Eramosa is also listed as the township with the smallest number of residential units that could be developed, Lang said.
“The proposed number of Rockwood households in the new forecast is smaller than the number of planned units that we’ve added up based on development applications we’ve received, and the proposed number of jobs we feel does not reflect the unique township circumstances such as location,” she said.
Lang said there a number of comments staff is preparing to send to the county.
First is that the township is supportive of updating the official plan. The second is to ask that projected population and household forecasts for Rockwood reflect the 2031 forecast for the current official plan. Third is a request to be involved in maintaining the land inventory to ensure township and county numbers are consistent. The fourth is a request that unique factors such as location be considered for employment forecasts, which the township feels should be adjusted upwards. The fifth comment is a request that county staff and township staff meet to discuss the numbers.
These requests will adjust the county’s numbers enough that the township will be able to develop to the maximum of its abilities, Lang indicated.
Council received the reports, endorsed the comments and directed staff to discuss the report and growth allocations with county staff.
