Experts warn of heavy rain, possible flooding over next few days

Conservation authorities say some flooding possible in areas typically prone to spring flooding

WELLINGTON COUNTY – While experts vary on the amount of rainfall, it appears Wellington County will see a wet Victoria Day.

On Sunday (May 17) Environment Canada issued a special weather statement for the area that indicates 30 to 60mm of rain could fall by Tuesday.

The rain will start by midday on Sunday and persist in periods throughout Victoria Day on Monday, according to Environment Canada..

“The rain is expected to taper off early Tuesday morning, although some uncertainty remains around when the rain will end,” reads the statement posted on Sunday morning.

Credit Valley Conservation (CVC), whose catchment area includes the Town of Erin, previously predicted much heavier precipitation.

“Various weather forecasts are predicting rainfall amounts from 95 to upwards of 150mm starting late Sunday into Tuesday afternoon,” stated Saturday’s flood outlook from the CVC.

The CVC predicted that, based on the maximum rainfall amounts, low-lying areas along the Credit River may experience flooding by early Monday morning.

However, the next day the CVC significantly lowered its precipitation forecast, noting “Rainfall amounts near 50 millimetres are forecast with the potential for locally higher amounts in thunderstorms.”

A May 17 flood message from the Grand River Conservation Authority (GRCA), which covers most of Wellington County, stated “multiple weather sources (are) projecting between 50mm and 100 mm across the watershed.”

The GRCA warned of possible flooding in some areas prone to spring flooding, including Grand Valley and Drayton.

Environment Canada stated it will continue to monitor the situation closely and post rainfall warnings should more rain be likely.

Regardless of the amount of rainfall, officials are recommending all county residents should heed warnings about waterways.

“All streams, rivers, and shorelines could become dangerous, especially in the vicinity of culverts, bridges and dams,” stated the CVC.

“People should be warned to stay away from all watercourses and shorelines, especially children and pets.”