Revised figures on assimilative capacity could essentially bring development here to a grinding halt.
On March 20 a special meeting was held with Matt Pearson of BM Ross regarding the town’s much anticipated and long awaited Servicing and Settlement Master Plan (SSMP).
Pearson’s slide show presentation suggested revised numbers, as set out by Credit Valley Conservation (CVC)on behalf of the Ministry of the Environment (MOE), could permanently limit growth in Erin to as few as 500 new homes.
Estimates now suggest the assimilative capacity of the West Credit River could handle a population of 6,000 – but the urban populations of Erin and Hillsburgh are already pushing the 4,500 mark.
That would leave the potential to develop homes for 1,500 people – not 1,500 homes – with three people per household.
The meeting’s purpose was to provide an overview of planning strategies to be evaluated in the SSMP and an overview of what options can be explored, as determined by the assimilative capacity of the West Credit River.
Because of the limited ability of the river to take on treated wastewater effluent, council is left to decide what areas of the town can be serviced and whether it will be limited to Erin village – or whether that servicing will also include Hillsburgh.
Without municipal sewage capacity, development could virtually end in Hillsburgh, as no large scale housing developments would be approved using septic systems.
Council also needs to decide whether available servicing capacity would be applied to existing homes or to new growth. Leaving existing homes on septic systems was strongly discouraged by Pearson.
In May 2013, CVC representative John Kinkead stated, “The assimilative capacity of the West Credit River will never be any greater than it is today.”
He suggested that in all likelihood, that capacity will decline as a result of climate change and other factors.
The intent of the SSMP is to address the Town of Erin’s lack of a long-term, comprehensive strategy for the provision of wastewater servicing in the villages of Erin and Hillsburgh.
The future wastewater servicing strategy will determine future needs related to other infrastructure components, such as the capacity of the existing water system in order to augment the needs of future development.
Existing and future stormwater management infrastructure would also need to be assessed, in addition to transportation infrastructure to accommodate future growth.
In February 2013, an initial Assimilative Capacity Study (ACS) was drafted. Following consultation with MOE and CVC it was determined that additional stream monitoring should be completed. That was completed in fall of 2013 and the data used in the calculation of the assimilative capacity.
At the request of MOE and CVC, a 10% reduction in low flow values was incorporated into the calculations to account for climate change and land use changes.
Given this limiting factor, there is capacity for approximately 6,000 persons total.
Pearson said three wastewater planning strategies will be reviewed in the SSMP report:
– status quo, which would be individual servicing of properties;
– big pipe, which would convey wastewater to another municipality for treatment; and
– municipal services, which would provide sewage treatment capacity for 6,000 residents.
In the past, Solmar Development Corporation had offered to provide a private sewage treatment plan for its proposed subdivision.
However, the sheer scope of that project, at over 1,200 residential units, would more than effectively end other development in the town.
In March 2013, the proposed costs to service the urban areas of Erin and Hillsburgh was pegged at $65 million.
