Wellington-Halton Hills MPP Ted Arnott is questioning the “methodology” used in a unionized labour estimate that 418 civil service jobs could be lost in the Centre Wellington area as part of a Conservative Party campaign promise to cut 100,000 public sector jobs province wide if the party wins the June 12 provincial election.
The cuts were announced by Conservative leader Tim Hudak as part of his party’s election campaign.
The Ontario Federation of Labour (OFL) and Canadian Union of Public Employees (CUPE) Ontario published the calculations on May 22.
The job loss estimates were determined by CUPE senior economist Tory Sanger and based on Statistics Canada household census data for urban and rural communities.
Sanger is also estimating that if a Conservative government moves ahead with the promised job cuts, it would mean a loss of 2,480 civil service jobs in Guelph.
“I was surprised when I heard the announcement. The Liberals and OFL are trying to frighten people,” Arnott said when contacted by the Advertiser about the estimates.
Hudak has promised the cuts would not include nurses, doctors or police officers, but would involve other civil servants.
Sanger said the estimates are derived proportionately based on the 100,000 representing a 10 per cent cut in the civil services across Ontario.
“These are estimates based on information I have available. I assumed the cuts would be proportional across the civil service,” Sanger said. “They’re the best estimates I could come up with.”
Arnott said Hudak’s promise to cut the civil service to same level it was at in 2009 is part of cost savings the Conservatives believe will eliminate the deficit sooner than the Liberal forecast of 2016-17.
The question has been raised while he has been out canvassing, Arnott noted.
“Many people are asking about it,” Arnott said.
Although Hudak has not released specifics about the cuts, Arnott said the party, if elected, would trim 5% of the civil service through attrition, impose a hiring freeze, re-organize some ministry departments and freeze civil service salaries for two years in a bid to put the province in stronger financial situation.
“They (the Liberals) are the ones who put us in this fiscal hole which forces us to look at savings,” Arnott added.
In his report Sanger stated, “What this analysis shows is if public sector jobs are eliminated proportionally, the impacts would be especially severe for mid- and smaller-sized cities and towns in the province – and could lead to double-digit unemployment rates in many.
“This is because, perhaps contrary to the perception of many, public sector employment actually tends to be proportionally higher in mid- and smaller cities than in larger cities. These public sector jobs are also an important source of economic stability in these communities because the jobs are more stable and are decently, or at least more equitably, compensated.”
Arnott said job cuts are not the only issues being raised on the campaign trail, adding he “is getting a good reception.”
