The Grand River Conservation Authority is stating in a press release that a warm front is forecast to move into the Grand River watershed on Monday and persist through Wednesday next week.
Daytime temperatures are forecast to reach 6C on Feb. 19 and 12C on Feb. 20 based on current forecasts.
Overnight temperatures on Monday are expected to remain high overnight. Rain is forecast to begin Monday and continue into Tuesday bringing up to 40mm of rainfall across the watershed.
The combination of warm temperatures and rainfall are expected to trigger moderate runoff into the river system.
Conditions are expected to result in snow melt and elevated flows in rivers and streams across the watershed.
The combination of snowmelt and rainfall is expected to push river levels higher, resulting in minor flooding in low lying areas typically prone to flooding. It is expected that runoff will cause current ice in the river to break up.
The major reservoirs at Belwood, Conestogo, Guelph, Luther, Woolwich, Laurel, and Shades are at low winter holding levels and have storage available to manage runoff from this event.
Flood Watch
Entire Watershed: Risk of flooding exists in low lying areas and from ice jams as this event moves through the watershed. Residents in areas typically prone to flooding should be aware of these conditions and take appropriate precautions.
GRCA Ice Fishing
It is expected that ice fishing at GRCA lakes and reservoir offering the activity will be suspended in response to increased flows into the reservoir and uncertain ice conditions. Anyone planning a visit is advised to call the parks directly for an update on current conditions.
Stay Safe
The public is reminded to exercise extreme caution around all water bodies. Banks adjacent to rivers and creeks are very slippery at this time and, when combined with current weather conditions, pose a serious hazard. Parents are encouraged to keep their children and pets away from all watercourses and off frozen water bodies, which will be weakened as a result of the warming trend.
This message is in effect until noon on Feb. 22.
Updated flood messages will be issued by the GRCA as conditions develop and better forecast information becomes available.
