The population growth rate in Wellington County over the next two decades will match the provincial average, updated projections suggest.
In January 2014 Wellington County retained Watson and Associates Economists Ltd. to update the county’s 2008 Population, Household and Employment Forecast Study.
The analysis is intended to guide decision making and policy development for planning and growth management, urban land needs, municipal finance, and infrastructure planning.
The study projects the county’s population will increase by approximately 41,100 persons over the forecast period, growing from 90,900 in 2011 to 132,000 in 2036, an average annual increase of 1.5%.
Comparatively, Ontario as a whole is forecast to increase at an annual average rate of 1.5% between 2011 and 2036.
Wellington County’s housing base is forecast to increase from approximately 31,190 in 2011 to 45,750 in 2036, an increase of 14,560 or 1.5% annually.
Average housing occupancy levels have declined in Wellington County from 3.04 persons per unit in 2001 to 2.91 in 2011.
Over the forecast period, this trend is expected to continue. However, levels are anticipated to stabilize during the post-2031 period.
The majority of new housing construction is expected to be oriented towards low-density housing – single and semi-detached homes – comprising 75% of the new residential construction between 2011 and 2036.
Over the forecast period, the share of medium-density and high-density housing forms is anticipated to gradually increase, largely driven by forecast demographic trends and decreasing housing affordability, the study notes.
Employment county-wide is forecast to increase from 36,195 in 2011 to 57,000 in 2036, an increase of 20,805 or 1.8% annually.
“Given the steady rate of population growth for the county, a significant share of employment growth is anticipated in population-servicing sectors,” the study states, listing retail, accommodation and food services, personal services and institutional services related to education, government services and health care/social services, as areas of anticipated growth.
The study also notes the regional export-based economy is gradually rebounding from the 2008-09 global economic downturn.
“Wellington County’s industrial sector is also showing signs of a gradual recovery and is forecast to experience steady industrial growth over the long term,” the study states, noting industrial employment growth is anticipated in sectors related to small/medium-scale manufacturing (primarily firms that are technology intensive), construction, energy and environmental technology, wholesale trade and transportation and warehousing.
The study projects increased opportunity will exist for work-at-home employment through improved telecommunications technology.
“Also, given the significant forecast increase in the 55-plus population, it is likely that an increased number of working and semi-retired residents will be seeking lifestyles which allow them to work from home on a full-time or part-time basis,” the study states.
Wellington’s proximity to growing urban populations in Guelph, Waterloo Region, Toronto and Hamilton is expected to impact growth locally.
The study states the county’s southern and central municipalities, which have available urban land supply and water/wastewater servicing capacity, are anticipated to attract the greatest share of new residential development activity over the long term.
As a result of existing land supply constraints in Morriston and Aberfoyle, existing servicing constraints in the villages of Erin and Hillsburgh, as well as servicing capacity limits within the community of Rockwood, the majority of population and housing growth allocated to southern Wellington County municipalities is concentrated in the Township of Centre Wellington.
Over the 2011 to 2036 period, approximately 50% of the county’s forecast housing growth is expected to occur in Centre Wellington.
The study projects “steady population and housing growth” for Wellington’s northern municipalities, including Wellington North and Minto, “relative to historical trends.”
All Wellington municipalities are anticipated to experience employment growth over the forecast period, largely depending on the amount of “shovel-ready” designated employment lands available for development and expansion, the study states. Again, about half (48%) of the growth is expected to occur in Centre Wellington.
Councillor Andy Lennox, chair of the county’s planning committee, said lower tier municipalities should carefully examine the study’s “broad implications of where growth is going to occur.”
“I think it’s an important document to consider because it has the potential to affect many things, potentially even the constitution of this chamber,” he said.
“We already have a disproportionate representation by population over the last 20 years because of the way that growth has occurred over that time. Eventually, the way we govern ourselves may have to change because of that. Certainly it’s one of the things we should consider.”
Council received the report for information and directed it be circulated to local municipalities for comment.
Over the 2011 to 2036 period, approximately 50% of the county’s forecast housing growth is expected to occur in Centre Wellington.
The study projects “steady population and housing growth” for Wellington’s northern municipalities, including Wellington North and Minto, “relative to historical trends.”
All Wellington municipalities are anticipated to experience employment growth over the forecast period, largely depending on the amount of “shovel-ready” designated employment lands available for development and expansion, the study states. Again, about half (48%) of the growth is expected to occur in Centre Wellington.
Councillor Andy Lennox, chair of the county’s planning committee, said lower tier municipalities should carefully examine the study’s “broad implications of where growth is going to occur.”
“I think it’s an important document to consider because it has the potential to affect many things, potentially even the constitution of this chamber,” he said.
“We already have a disproportionate representation by population over the last 20 years because of the way that growth has occurred over that time. Eventually, the way we govern ourselves may have to change because of that. Certainly it’s one of the things we should consider.”
Council received the report for information and directed it be circulated to local municipalities for comment.
