ONTARIO – Plus ça change. Little else may sum up the state of Canada’s 45th federal election campaign after a week that has seen key race markers passed, some movement on leader favourability, but little overall impact on the vote picture according to new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute.
The good news for Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives is found in positive shift in momentum for the leader.
Last week, when asked if their opinion of him had improved or worsened, Poilievre scored a minus 20 on this measure – improved minus worsened. This week, post debate, that score is a minus seven.
Meanwhile, Liberal leader Mark Carney scores a minus two this week, an inversion of his plus two before the debates.
The bad news, however, is multifold: Poilievre’s increase in favourability has him once again at the same ceiling he has faced since taking over the CPC leadership in 2022 – around two-in-five (38 per cent). Further, this positive personal momentum has made minimal difference to vote dynamics.
It may be time for the Conservatives to pull the goalie, as it were.
The party likely hopes that the release of a costed platform on Tuesday will give it the advantage needed to tighten the race as the clock winds down.
As it stands, the federal Liberals and Carney hold a five-point lead over the Conservatives (44% vs 39%), despite a pair of leaders’ debates, more than two million people having cast ballots so far in advanced voting, and two out of three parties (notwithstanding the Conservatives) having released costed platforms. Note, these voter data include both those who have already cast a ballot and those who intend to.
The story gets worse for the Conservatives when taking key urban battlegrounds into account. The Liberals have gained another five points in Toronto (416) and now hold a 34-point advantage over the CPC in that region.
The movement has been smaller, but still positive and maintaining a large lead in suburban Toronto (905) and Metro Vancouver. In Montreal, the NDP have rallied some support post-debate, but are still supported in single digits, while the Liberals hold a commanding lead, doubling the second place Bloc Québécois (47% to 24%).
One other trend bodes well for the Liberals and portends a challenge for the CPC: among those Liberals who say they decided to support the party since the beginning of 2025, 45% say this is because the Liberals are the best bet to defeat the CPC. This motivation is up from 30% in March.
More key findings include:
– asked who impressed them during the English and French debates last week, Mark Carney (34%) and Pierre Poilievre (32%) were chosen among the most viewers. One-quarter (25%) said they were not impressed by anyone, while Yves-Francois Blanchet impressed one-in-five (22%). NDP leader Jagmeet Singh was chosen by 13%;
– Carney holds advantages on nearly all top issues for Canadians, though he and Poilievre are tied on “reducing the cost of living” with 37% of Canadians choosing each. Carney is preferred by 24 points on handling the U.S. trade relationship, 26 points on growing non-U.S. trade, 15 points on growing the economy, and 13 points on improving health care; and
– Carney’s overfall favourability holds at 54% this week, while Poilievre’s ticks upward to 38 per cent. The CPC leader has still yet to surpass 40% since September 2022.
