Conservatives open lead over Liberals as past PPC voters migrate to Poilievre

OTTAWA – The ascendance of Pierre Poilievre as leader of the Conservatives is giving his party an advantage in vote intent over the Liberals not seen in more than three years.

Since the 2019 election, the two parties have been locked in what has mostly amounted to a statistical tie in national vote intention. 

Now the opposition party’s pulling together a right-of-centre base that includes not only its own supporters but those who turned out for the People’s Party in the 2021 general election.

The result is now a seven-point lead in vote intention for the Conservatives, according to new data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute. Three-quarters of those who supported the PPC in the last federal election (5% of Canadians voted for the PPC) say they would now support the CPC.

Overall, three-in-ten Canadians say they would vote Liberal, while one-in-five would vote for the NDP.

In terms of the personal appeal of Trudeau and Poilievre, there is an emerging gender dynamic at play. Women are far more likely to approve of Trudeau’s performance (47% vs 32%). When asked about Poilievre, 45 per cent of men view him favourably, compared to just 26 per cent of women. This extends to vote intention. The CPC is the top choice among all male age groups and no female age groups. Women younger than 35 prefer the NDP, while those older than 34 prefer the Liberals.

Three-in-five believe cost of living is a top issue facing Canada, outpacing health care (45%), climate change (28%), housing affordability (27%) and the economy more broadly (21%).

Among decided and leaning voters, nearly half (47%) of men say they intend to vote CPC if an election were held today. Support for the CPC is much lower among women: 28%.