GUELPH – Whether it’s inflation, global conflict, energy costs, trade impediments or climate change – to name just some of the factors academics are blaming – one thing is for certain: food prices will continue to rise.
It’s predicted families will spend nearly $1,000 more on food next year, according to the recently released 16th annual Canada’s Food Price Report, led by Dalhousie University, examining the cost to eat in Canada.
A family of four – a middle-aged man and woman, adolescent boy and a young girl – will be fed at a cost of $17,571 next year, according to the Dec. 4 report, which relies heavily on modelling outcomes.
That’s up $994 from $16,577 this year; and by $1,539 from the 2024 total of $16,032.
Climate change, rising input costs, inflation, trade disruptions, a poor Canadian dollar, food processing costs and consumer debt are all considered likely factors in the report’s predicted four to six per cent increase in overall food prices next year.
Meat and restaurant categories, consistent with previous years, are expected to lead the way with increases between 4 and 5% at the low end and 6 to 7% at the high end.
This year, meat and other food products (such as non-alcoholic beverages) increased at a higher-than-forecasted rate, bakery goods increased at a lower-than-expected rate, and the price of fruits and veggies decreased.
Overall, food prices increased by 4% in 2025, according to the report.
Domestic beef prices have increased 23% this year from a five-year average due to underproduction, and the price of chicken, currently the more affordable protein, is expected to spike because of record-low domestic production.
In response, people are eating less meat, but not substituting another protein, according to the report, leading to concerns about malnutrition among 10 million food-insecure Canadians, or a quarter of the population.
“As it becomes more difficult for Canadians to afford a healthy diet, there could be a rise in health-related challenges and a corresponding decline in overall public health,” the report states.
“When a budget is tight … money that is allocated to food is usually the one that gets squeezed really fast,” said Sadaf Mollaei, assistant professor at the University of Guelph Lang School of Business.
Mollaei, who researches sustainable consumer food systems for the Arrell Food Institute, was one of the academic advisors on the study trying to make sense of what’s behind the data.
When there’s a food system disruption, prices quickly increase and don’t come back down, leading to unsustainable increases.
According to Food Banks Canada Hunger Count, food bank use nearly doubled in 2024, with two million visits, up 90% from slightly over one million visits recorded in 2019.
And this year, there were nearly 2.16 million visits on a monthly basis, breaking last year’s historic record.
Local food banks are reporting year-over-year increases in people needing help, and in the case of the Centre Wellington Food Bank, the number of people registered there has nearly doubled.
People are adapting by sacrificing quality food for cheaper, less nutritious options, Mollaei said.
“At the end of the day you’re going to purchase something that you can afford,” she said.
This year’s report notes people are opting for discounted goods and frozen food – and big grocers are noticing.
Loblaws is piloting its No Name “ultra-discount store” and plans to open 50 additional No Frills stores. Dollarama is also cashing in on the change, expanding its non-perishable food line, according to the report.
But most discount stores are still operated under banners of the big four grocery chains, which control 72% of the country’s grocery market share.
Despite a movement to boycott Loblaws last year, the company’s revenue increased slightly to nearly $14 billion.
“It’s a very complex system and there’s so many factors involved,” Mollaei said, noting expenses beyond the food sector affect access to food, its affordability and consumer choice.
“If housing prices are high, it doesn’t matter what happens in the food system; if you’re spending most of your money on housing, then you don’t have money left to spend on food.”
The report provides a surface-level scan of yearly factors influencing food prices to help make sense of what’s going on, but no solutions or recommendations are put forward.
Mollaei said there needs to be a systems-wide approach to government policy and she supports favouring consumers and bolstering competition within the food system.
“Food price is just one factor in a very big system … some of them are within our control and some of them are not and we need to focus on what can we control,” she said.
