TORONTO – The Ontario government released its fall economic statement last week (Nov. 6) with a smaller than projected deficit of $13.5-billion – less than the $14.6 billion forecasted in this year’s budget, but still well above the $1.1 billion deficit carried in 2024-25.
New spending included in the fall budget includes $1.1 billion for home care for three years, and a $100-million top-up to a fund helping small- and medium-sized businesses rely less on U.S. trade.
The fall statement proposes expanding current tax credits for manufacturers and a measure, dependent on the recently announced federal budget passing, to fully exempt first-time home buyers from paying provincial sales tax included in the HST.
Contained within the statement is also a move to rid the province of its climate change objectives.
The province is also following through on a move to remove fixed election dates and raise a limit on political donations to $5,000.
Net debt is expected to reach $458.62 billion in the current fiscal year
The province’s net debt-to-GDP is projected to hit 37.7 per cent in 2025-26 and rise in subsequent years.
Real GDP growth is anticipated at less than 2% this year and next.
Ontario Finance Minister Peter Bethlenfalvy aims to bring the province back into the black in 2027-28, with a $200-million surplus that year.
Perth-Wellington Conservative MPP Matthew Rae said the statement supports “vital investments in our rural communities.”
However, opposition parties have faulted the budget for not providing help for the increasing number of unemployed people in the province and not delivering on a promise to build 1.5 million new homes by 2031.
The unemployment rate is expected to reach 7.8% this year.
New housing builds are projected to slow year-over-year, with 64,300 new builds in 2025-26, down from a projection of 71,800.
The province would need to see a yearly average of 150,000 new builds each year to reach a goal of 1.5 million in a decade.
Ontario Liberal finance critic Stephanie Bowman said the fall budget doesn’t even amount to “teeny-tiny tinkering.”
“What we needed was real action to meet the economic challenges we face,” Bowman said in a statement.
NDP Leader Marit Stiles said the statement “fails to deliver for working people.”
Stiles said the “government is failing” and has no plan to address rising unemployment or a lack of housing.
Green Party Leader Mike Schreiner said much of the same in his statement responding to the budget.
“This government has no plan to help out everyday Ontarians,” Schreiner said.
“People are feeling pinched and this government is [missing in action] where it counts most.”
Bethlenfalvy said the government’s fall budget delivers on a plan to protect Ontario and keep the province in a strong financial position.
The province will soon begin consultations for the 2026 budget.
